Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 15% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 15%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?
YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.
15%probability
- this page closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?
YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.
15%probability
Target
Discussion
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