Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the Consejo de Ministros approves the real decreto fixing the salario mínimo interprofesional for 2027 at 1,286 euros/month (5.3%) at a meeting held on or before 24 November 2026, as reported by the Moncloa press conference, the MITES ministry, or the BOE. NO if no such approval has occurred by 24 November 2026 (deferred to the caretaker government or the incoming government after the 29 November election).
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 85%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?
YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.
15%probability
- closes 25 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?
YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.
15%probability
Target
Discussion
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