Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 02:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 10% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.
10%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement keeps the target range at 3.75–4.00%. NO if the range is changed in either direction.
14%probability
- this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.
10%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement keeps the target range at 3.75–4.00%. NO if the range is changed in either direction.
14%probability
Target
Discussion
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