Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting (decision announced 9 December 2026)?
as of 15 Nov 2026, 02:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the FOMC statement released at the close of the 8–9 December 2026 meeting (scheduled 14:00 ET, 9 December 2026) announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is at least 25bp above the 4.00% upper bound in effect after the 27–28 October 2026 meeting (i.e. 4.25% or higher). NO if the range is left unchanged at 3.75–4.00% or is lowered. Resolution source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement / implementation note.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 86% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 86%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.
10%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement keeps the target range at 3.75–4.00%. NO if the range is changed in either direction.
14%probability
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase from 3.75–4.00%). NO for any smaller increase or no change.
10%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
YES if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement keeps the target range at 3.75–4.00%. NO if the range is changed in either direction.
14%probability
Target
Discussion
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