Open
/Event/closes 31 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC

Will the Ala-Too Resort first-phase opening slip past 2 December 2026 but still take place on or before 31 December 2026?

18%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 12:09 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if the first phase of Ala-Too Resort's Jyrgalan cluster is not opened to visitors on or before 2 December 2026, but a dated report shows it opening (ceremony or lifts/runs operating for guests) between 3 December and 31 December 2026.

Branch of Will Kyrgyzstan's Ala-Too Resort open the first phase of its Jyrgalan mountain cluster to visitors on or before 2 December 2026, as announced for 1 December?(Open)

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 18% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 18%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

mutually exclusive

Target

Event

01a1ce66-9e4c-7aff-bd33-f91d9d92c0a5

Open event

Discussion

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