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/Decision/closes 31 Dec 2026 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC

Will no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?

45%probability

as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC ·no change

API record

Resolves YES if

Yes if no new US-Israel military-aid MOU is publicly announced by 31 December 2026 — negotiations continue into 2027, or the two sides settle only on a narrower arrangement (e.g. NDAA-based co-production provisions) without a signed/announced MOU.

Branch of Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?(Open)

Model track record Brier 0.054 · 19 scored · 3 resolved · coin-flip 0.250 record

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 45% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  1. 45%—

    Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

mutually exclusive

Target

Decision

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Discussion

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