Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the US and Israeli governments publicly announce/finalise a new multi-year security memorandum of understanding on military assistance (the reported five-year, ~$16.5bn FMF framework beginning after the current MOU expires in 2028) on or before 31 December 2026. No if no new MOU is announced by then and the existing 2016 MOU simply runs to its 2028 expiry.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 55% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 55%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?
Yes if no new US-Israel military-aid MOU is publicly announced by 31 December 2026 — negotiations continue into 2027, or the two sides settle only on a narrower arrangement (e.g. NDAA-based co-production provisions) without a signed/announced MOU.
45%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?
Yes if no new US-Israel military-aid MOU is publicly announced by 31 December 2026 — negotiations continue into 2027, or the two sides settle only on a narrower arrangement (e.g. NDAA-based co-production provisions) without a signed/announced MOU.
45%probability
Target
Decision
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