Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 12% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?
Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.
12%probability
- this page closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?
Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.
12%probability
Target
Event
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