Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 06:09 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the Alaska Division of Elections' ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November 2026 (or the completed first-choice count, if a candidate clears 50%) leaves Mary Peltola with more votes than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, and the race is called or certified for Peltola on or before 26 November 2026. No if Sullivan is tabulated/certified as the winner, or if certification is still blocked by litigation on 26 November 2026.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 88% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 88%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?
Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.
12%probability
- closes 26 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?
Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.
12%probability
Target
Event
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