Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.
Branch of Will the US and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding formally ending hostilities on or before 31 December 2026?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 12% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.
12%probability
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.
12%probability