Will the US and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding formally ending hostilities on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the United States and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding that formally ends hostilities (as reported by a major wire service or either government) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if no such signed instrument exists by that date.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 20% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 20%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.
12%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.
12%probability