Will Copom instead cut the Selic rate by 25bp or more at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
as of 13 Nov 2026, 00:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the Copom statement after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting lowers the Selic target to 13.50% or below. A hold at 13.75% or any hike makes this NO.
Branch of Will Brazil's Copom leave the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 13% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 13%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Copom instead cut the Selic rate by 25bp or more at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
Yes if the Copom statement after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting lowers the Selic target to 13.50% or below. A hold at 13.75% or any hike makes this NO.
13%probability
- this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Copom instead cut the Selic rate by 25bp or more at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
Yes if the Copom statement after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting lowers the Selic target to 13.50% or below. A hold at 13.75% or any hike makes this NO.
13%probability