Will Brazil's Copom leave the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
85%probability
as of 13 Nov 2026, 00:06 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the Copom statement published after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting sets the Selic target at 13.75% a year (no change from the 4 November 2026 decision). Any cut or hike makes this NO.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 85%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Copom instead cut the Selic rate by 25bp or more at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
Yes if the Copom statement after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting lowers the Selic target to 13.50% or below. A hold at 13.75% or any hike makes this NO.
13%probability
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill Copom instead cut the Selic rate by 25bp or more at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
Yes if the Copom statement after the 8–9 December 2026 meeting lowers the Selic target to 13.50% or below. A hold at 13.75% or any hike makes this NO.
13%probability
Target
Back to forecasts 1 branch