Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 vary Igor Martyshov's measure — releasing him or moving him to house arrest?

12%probability

as of 12 Nov 2026, 18:08 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if the 25 November 2026 appellate ruling overturns the custody extension and substitutes a non-custodial measure (release, bail, or house arrest) for Martyshov.

Branch of Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 leave YevroTrans chairman Igor Martyshov in pre-trial detention until 6 February 2027, dismissing the defence appeal?(Open)

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 12% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

12 Nov 2026, 18:08 UTC12%—
Probability updated.

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

mutually exclusive

this page closes 27 Nov 2026 exclusive Open
Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 vary Igor Martyshov's measure — releasing him or moving him to house arrest?
YES if the 25 November 2026 appellate ruling overturns the custody extension and substitutes a non-custodial measure (release, bail, or house arrest) for Martyshov.
12%
probability

this page closes 27 Nov 2026 exclusive Open
Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 vary Igor Martyshov's measure — releasing him or moving him to house arrest?
YES if the 25 November 2026 appellate ruling overturns the custody extension and substitutes a non-custodial measure (release, bail, or house arrest) for Martyshov.
12%
probability

Target

Event

01a1cf0b-9b42-7646-9af2-06b0dca7d43a

Open event

Back to forecasts 0 branches