Will the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC
Probability updated.
30%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 11 Jan 2027 OpenWill the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?
Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.
30%probability
- this page closes 11 Jan 2027 OpenWill the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?
Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.
30%probability