Will China publish a further extension of its suspension of the October 2025 rare-earth export controls beyond 10 January 2027, on or before 10 January 2027?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if MOFCOM and/or the General Administration of Customs publish an announcement on or before 10 January 2027 that keeps the October 2025 rare-earth/related export-control announcements (MOFCOM–GACC No. 55–58 of 2025 and MOFCOM No. 61–62 of 2025) suspended beyond 10 January 2027. No if no such announcement is published by that date and the suspension lapses.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 60% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC
Probability updated.
60%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 11 Jan 2027 OpenWill the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?
Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.
30%probability
- closes 11 Jan 2027 OpenWill the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?
Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.
30%probability