Will the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.
Branch of Will the Kuomintang win the largest number of Taiwan's 22 county and city leadership posts in the 28 November 2026 local elections?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 45% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC
Probability updated.
45%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 30 Nov 2026 OpenWill the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.
45%probability
- this page closes 30 Nov 2026 OpenWill the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.
45%probability