Will the Kuomintang win the largest number of Taiwan's 22 county and city leadership posts in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the Kuomintang wins more of the 22 county magistrates and city mayors than any other party (including independents counted separately) when the Central Election Commission certifies the 28 November 2026 results. No if the DPP or any other party wins more, or if the KMT ties for the largest bloc.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 70% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC
Probability updated.
70%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 30 Nov 2026 OpenWill the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.
45%probability
- closes 30 Nov 2026 OpenWill the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?
Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.
45%probability