Will the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 00:10 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase).
Branch of Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 13% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 00:10 UTC
Probability updated.
13%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by exactly 25bp to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.00–4.25% (a 25bp increase).
82%probability - this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase).
13%probability
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by exactly 25bp to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.00–4.25% (a 25bp increase).
82%probability - this page closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase).
13%probability