Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 00:10 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the FOMC statement issued at the conclusion of the 8–9 December 2026 meeting raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.75–4.00% (i.e. by 25bp to 4.00–4.25% or by 50bp to 4.25–4.50%). No if the target range is left unchanged at 3.75–4.00% or lowered.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 95% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 00:10 UTC
Probability updated.
95%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by exactly 25bp to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.00–4.25% (a 25bp increase).
82%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase).
13%probability
- closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by exactly 25bp to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.00–4.25% (a 25bp increase).
82%probability - closes 10 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?
Yes if the 9 December 2026 FOMC statement sets the target range at 4.25–4.50% (a 50bp increase).
13%probability