Will COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 18:12 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if by 23:59 TRT on 23 November 2026 no COP31 cover decision has been gavelled through, because the closing plenary was suspended/adjourned to a resumed session, or the conference closed procedurally with contested texts (finance, adaptation, just transition) carried over to COP32.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 25% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 18:12 UTC
Probability updated.
25%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31's closing plenary overrun past 20 November 2026 but still gavel through a cover decision on or before 23 November 2026?
YES if the Antalya closing plenary runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026 (into 21 November or later) and the COP31 cover decision / package of decisions is nevertheless adopted at that overrunning closing plenary on or before 23 November 2026, with no resumed session.
50%probability - this page closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?
YES if by 23:59 TRT on 23 November 2026 no COP31 cover decision has been gavelled through, because the closing plenary was suspended/adjourned to a resumed session, or the conference closed procedurally with contested texts (finance, adaptation, just transition) carried over to COP32.
25%probability
- closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31's closing plenary overrun past 20 November 2026 but still gavel through a cover decision on or before 23 November 2026?
YES if the Antalya closing plenary runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026 (into 21 November or later) and the COP31 cover decision / package of decisions is nevertheless adopted at that overrunning closing plenary on or before 23 November 2026, with no resumed session.
50%probability - this page closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?
YES if by 23:59 TRT on 23 November 2026 no COP31 cover decision has been gavelled through, because the closing plenary was suspended/adjourned to a resumed session, or the conference closed procedurally with contested texts (finance, adaptation, just transition) carried over to COP32.
25%probability