Will COP31 in Antalya formally close with an adopted cover decision by 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026, without the closing plenary being suspended to a resumed session?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 18:12 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if UNFCCC holds a closing plenary on 20 November 2026 at which the COP31 cover decision and the package of conference decisions are gavelled through, and no resumed session is announced. NO if the closing runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026, or the session is suspended/adjourned with substantive decisions deferred to a resumed session or to COP32.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 25% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 18:12 UTC
Probability updated.
25%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31's closing plenary overrun past 20 November 2026 but still gavel through a cover decision on or before 23 November 2026?
YES if the Antalya closing plenary runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026 (into 21 November or later) and the COP31 cover decision / package of decisions is nevertheless adopted at that overrunning closing plenary on or before 23 November 2026, with no resumed session.
50%probability - closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?
YES if by 23:59 TRT on 23 November 2026 no COP31 cover decision has been gavelled through, because the closing plenary was suspended/adjourned to a resumed session, or the conference closed procedurally with contested texts (finance, adaptation, just transition) carried over to COP32.
25%probability
- closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31's closing plenary overrun past 20 November 2026 but still gavel through a cover decision on or before 23 November 2026?
YES if the Antalya closing plenary runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026 (into 21 November or later) and the COP31 cover decision / package of decisions is nevertheless adopted at that overrunning closing plenary on or before 23 November 2026, with no resumed session.
50%probability - closes 24 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?
YES if by 23:59 TRT on 23 November 2026 no COP31 cover decision has been gavelled through, because the closing plenary was suspended/adjourned to a resumed session, or the conference closed procedurally with contested texts (finance, adaptation, just transition) carried over to COP32.
25%probability