Will the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit conclude all three announced agreements (SPS, ETS linkage and youth mobility)?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC ·+6 pts
Resolves YES if
Yes if, at or in the joint declaration of the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit, the EU and UK sign or formally conclude all three of: the food/animal-health (SPS) agreement, the linkage of the EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and the youth mobility scheme.
Branch of Will the EU and UK sign the food and animal-health (SPS) agreement at the Brussels summit on 20 November 2026?(Open)
Probability history
3 recorded points
now 58% · +6 pts
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC
new evidence: leaked draft joint statement welcomes end of youth-mobility talks with no cap and defers tuition-fee equal treatment to a six-month work programme (QNC 2026-11-09), removing the main blocker; ETS linkage "on the brink" (EUobserver 2026-11-11T06:27Z)
58% evidence 01a1cca2
- 11 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
new evidence: draft texts for all three deals circulated (BBC 11 Nov) but Borderlex 3 Nov reports food/carbon sign-off conditional on resolving tuition fees and youth mobility
52% evidence 01a1cb59
- 10 Nov 2026, 18:11 UTC
Probability updated.
55%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 21 Nov 2026 OpenWill the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit conclude all three announced agreements (SPS, ETS linkage and youth mobility)?
Yes if, at or in the joint declaration of the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit, the EU and UK sign or formally conclude all three of: the food/animal-health (SPS) agreement, the linkage of the EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and the youth mobility scheme.
58%probability
- this page closes 21 Nov 2026 OpenWill the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit conclude all three announced agreements (SPS, ETS linkage and youth mobility)?
Yes if, at or in the joint declaration of the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit, the EU and UK sign or formally conclude all three of: the food/animal-health (SPS) agreement, the linkage of the EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and the youth mobility scheme.
58%probability