Will the EU and UK sign the food and animal-health (SPS) agreement at the Brussels summit on 20 November 2026?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC ·+2 pts
Resolves YES if
Yes if the EU and UK sign (or formally conclude negotiations on) the sanitary and phytosanitary / food-and-animal-health agreement at the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit in Brussels, as reported by the European Commission, the UK government, or the Council. No if the summit ends without that agreement being signed or concluded, including if it is postponed.
Probability history
3 recorded points
now 82% · +2 pts
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC
new evidence: SPS draft text circulated to all 27 member states, deal "almost finalised" (Scotsman 2026-11-11T13:47:02Z); BBC 2026-11-11T11:11:53Z draft deal agreed ahead of summit
82% evidence 01a1cca2
- 11 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
new evidence: tuition-fee linkage could hold back SPS sign-off (Borderlex 3 Nov) vs. 11 Nov reports that Burnham is due to sign the food deal on 20 Nov
80% evidence 01a1cb59
- 10 Nov 2026, 18:11 UTC
Probability updated.
82%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 21 Nov 2026 OpenWill the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit conclude all three announced agreements (SPS, ETS linkage and youth mobility)?
Yes if, at or in the joint declaration of the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit, the EU and UK sign or formally conclude all three of: the food/animal-health (SPS) agreement, the linkage of the EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and the youth mobility scheme.
58%probability
- closes 21 Nov 2026 OpenWill the 20 November 2026 EU–UK summit conclude all three announced agreements (SPS, ETS linkage and youth mobility)?
Yes if, at or in the joint declaration of the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit, the EU and UK sign or formally conclude all three of: the food/animal-health (SPS) agreement, the linkage of the EU and UK emissions trading schemes, and the youth mobility scheme.
58%probability