Will Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person bilaterally in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026 and no three-way meeting including Putin occurs, as reported by a major wire service or official readout.
Branch of Will a Trump–Xi–Putin trilateral meeting actually be held on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026?(Open)
Probability history
17 recorded points
now 56% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC
new evidence: State Dept readout names a potential trilateral leaders meeting with Russia (small negative for bilateral-only); Trump-Xi bilateral itself firmed by Rubio-Wang call
56% evidence 01a1cd7d
- 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
new evidence: SCMP 17:07Z says Trump is scheduled to meet Xi in Shenzhen 18-19 Nov, Rubio-Wang call finalising that bilateral; no trilateral confirmation
58% evidence 01a1cbc6
- 11 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
new evidence: Bessent joins Trump in Shenzhen for the Trump-Xi meeting, with a fourth Trump-Xi meeting planned in Miami; Philippine DFA confirms Trump attends ASEAN-US summit 17 Nov then travels to Shenzhen
45% evidence 01a1c9a0
- 11 Nov 2026, 06:13 UTC
new evidence: Kyodo/Mainichi confirms Putin expected in Shenzhen and Trump-Xi third bilateral expected; bilateral framing unchanged, p held
43% evidence 01a1c93e
- 11 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC
new evidence: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says he will travel to Shenzhen for "a meeting between Trump and Xi", calling it Trump's third Xi meeting this year — official US framing is bilateral
43% evidence 01a1c856
- 11 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
new evidence on parent: Beijing confirms it is discussing a three-leader meeting, so the bilateral-only branch gives up a little probability (0.42 -> 0.40); residual no-meeting ~0.13
40% evidence 01a1c7e8
- 10 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
Re-priced for coherence with parent after Rubio's 10 Nov statement: trilateral up to 0.45, so bilateral-only falls to 0.42; residual (no Trump–Xi meeting at all) ~0.13. SCMP still reports the substantive Trump–Xi encounter expected at the G20 in Miami in December, which keeps bilateral-only the modal branch.
42% evidence 01a1c630
- 10 Nov 2026, 15:15 UTC
New evidence: SCMP 2026-11-10T14:00Z reports Trump and Xi are "set to meet again at next week's Apec summit" (third bilateral this year), while the trilateral format is stuck in a US-China impasse (WSJ/Bloomberg 2026-11-10). Bilateral-only path is now the modal outcome; raised from 0.40.
50% evidence 01a1c607
- 10 Nov 2026, 15:07 UTC
Probability updated.
40%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?
YES if Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person bilaterally in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026 and no three-way meeting including Putin occurs, as reported by a major wire service or official readout.
56%probability
- this page closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?
YES if Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person bilaterally in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026 and no three-way meeting including Putin occurs, as reported by a major wire service or official readout.
56%probability