Will a Trump–Xi–Putin trilateral meeting actually be held on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if a three-way meeting with Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin all physically present takes place in Shenzhen during the APEC leaders' meeting window of 18–19 November 2026, as reported by a major wire service or an official readout from the White House, Kremlin or Chinese MFA. A bilateral Trump–Xi or Trump–Putin meeting alone, or a phone/video call, does not count.
Probability history
17 recorded points
now 32% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC
new evidence: US State Dept readout of 11 Nov Rubio-Wang call names "any potential trilateral leaders meeting with Russia"; China's own readout omits it
32% evidence 01a1cd7d
- 11 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
new evidence: Kremlin (Ushakov) now describes only a bilateral Putin-Trump at APEC as being worked out; Rubio-Wang call finalises the Trump-Xi bilateral
30% evidence 01a1cbc6
- 11 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
new evidence: Bessent/Anadolu 07:29Z frames Shenzhen as Trump-Xi bilateral with a fourth meeting in Miami; Bloomberg 06:16Z US envoy Perdue says relations "bumpy" amid Nvidia scandal; still no format confirmation 7 days out
42% evidence 01a1c9a0
- 11 Nov 2026, 06:13 UTC
new evidence: Kyodo/Mainichi confirms Putin expected to attend 18-19 Nov summit (enabling condition firmed); no format confirmation yet
45% evidence 01a1c93e
- 11 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC
new evidence: SCMP 11 Nov exclusive — agenda/protocol still unresolved, progress "slow", scheduling a "hurdle" on 18-19 Nov; Bessent (Reuters, 11 Nov) frames Shenzhen as the third Trump-Xi bilateral
44% evidence 01a1c856
- 11 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
new evidence: Chinese MFA (Mao Ning) on record that Beijing is in communication with relevant parties about a three-heads-of-state meeting (Xi-Trump-Putin); still "nothing is set"
47% evidence 01a1c7e8
- 10 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
New evidence: Rubio (10 Nov 15:05Z) says preparations for the trilateral are underway and "some news" may come "fairly soon", with Trump wanting it to happen — top-level US push partly offsets the WSJ format/agenda impasse. Still no confirmation from Beijing or Moscow of the three-way format, and SCMP reports the substantive Trump–Xi meeting is expected at the G20 in Miami in December.
45% evidence 01a1c630
- 10 Nov 2026, 15:15 UTC
New evidence: WSJ/Bloomberg reporting (2026-11-10) that Beijing and Washington are at an impasse over format and agenda — Beijing demands scripted statements and a "predetermined outcome", refuses trilateral nuclear-arms talks; Chinese MFA (Guo Jiakun, 2026-11-10) says it has no information to provide. SCMP (2026-11-10T14:00Z) reports the administration is downplaying the Shenzhen visit as "short and routine" and that the substantive Trump-Xi meeting is expected at the G20 in Miami in December. Format impasse on ~8 days' notice lowers the trilateral probability.
38% evidence 01a1c607
- 10 Nov 2026, 15:06 UTC
Probability updated.
45%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?
YES if Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person bilaterally in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026 and no three-way meeting including Putin occurs, as reported by a major wire service or official readout.
56%probability
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?
YES if Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person bilaterally in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026 and no three-way meeting including Putin occurs, as reported by a major wire service or official readout.
56%probability