Will 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).
Branch of Will the US and Iran announce an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on or before 31 December 2026?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 75% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC
Probability updated.
75%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?
Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).
75%probability
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?
Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).
75%probability