Will the US and Iran announce an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if a dated report from a major outlet or official (US State Department/White House, Iranian foreign ministry, Qatari mediation) states that the US and Iran have reached an agreement whose terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. the Qatari two-day plan: US lifts the naval blockade/releases frozen assets, Iran reopens the strait). No if no such agreement is announced by the deadline, or if talks are formally suspended without one.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 25% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC
Probability updated.
25%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?
Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).
75%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?
Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).
75%probability