Will PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.
Branch of Will Spain's PP and Vox together win an absolute majority (176+ of 350 seats) in the 29 November 2026 general election?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 15% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC
Probability updated.
15%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?
YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.
15%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the Partido Popular win the most seats of any single party in Spain's 29 November 2026 general election?
YES if the PP wins more Congress seats than any other single party in the 29 November 2026 election, per the official count. NO if the PSOE or any other party wins more seats than the PP.
90%probability
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?
YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.
15%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the Partido Popular win the most seats of any single party in Spain's 29 November 2026 general election?
YES if the PP wins more Congress seats than any other single party in the 29 November 2026 election, per the official count. NO if the PSOE or any other party wins more seats than the PP.
90%probability