Will Spain's PP and Vox together win an absolute majority (176+ of 350 seats) in the 29 November 2026 general election?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if, in the Spanish general election of 29 November 2026, the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox together win at least 176 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, per the official count published by the Junta Electoral Central / BOE. NO if their combined seat total is 175 or fewer. Votes for PP-UPN or other PP-linked regional lists count toward the PP total only if those deputies sit with the PP group; state the counting rule used when resolving.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC
Probability updated.
85%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?
YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.
15%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the Partido Popular win the most seats of any single party in Spain's 29 November 2026 general election?
YES if the PP wins more Congress seats than any other single party in the 29 November 2026 election, per the official count. NO if the PSOE or any other party wins more seats than the PP.
90%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?
YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.
15%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill the Partido Popular win the most seats of any single party in Spain's 29 November 2026 general election?
YES if the PP wins more Congress seats than any other single party in the 29 November 2026 election, per the official count. NO if the PSOE or any other party wins more seats than the PP.
90%probability