Will the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 60% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC
Probability updated.
60%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?
YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.
60%probability
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?
YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.
60%probability