Will the IMO formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework (MARPOL Annex VI amendments) at the resumed extraordinary session on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:04 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the resumed second extraordinary session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (or MEPC 85 acting in its place) formally adopts the draft MARPOL Annex VI amendments constituting the Net-Zero Framework on or before 2026-12-31, as reported by the IMO itself (press briefing or adopted-resolution notice). NO if the session is adjourned again, the vote is deferred, or no adoption instrument exists by that date.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 30%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?
YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.
60%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?
YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.
60%probability