Will Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:03 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.
Branch of Will the US House of Representatives pass a resolution impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on or before 31 December 2026?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 10% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 21:03 UTC
Probability updated.
10%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the House table, reject, or otherwise dispose of Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution without adopting it on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the House votes to table the privileged resolution, votes it down, or the resolution otherwise dies without adoption (e.g. Rule IX clock expires again through early recess) on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is adopted or remains pending and undischarged at that date.
60%probability
- this page closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the House table, reject, or otherwise dispose of Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution without adopting it on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the House votes to table the privileged resolution, votes it down, or the resolution otherwise dies without adoption (e.g. Rule IX clock expires again through early recess) on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is adopted or remains pending and undischarged at that date.
60%probability