Will the US House of Representatives pass a resolution impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 21:03 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the House adopts (by simple majority, on a recorded vote) the privileged resolution filed by Rep. Thomas Massie on 9 November 2026 containing eight articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth, on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is tabled, rejected, withdrawn, or never brought to a vote by that date. A resignation or removal of Hegseth before the vote is neither YES nor NO for this question (see branches).
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 30%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the House table, reject, or otherwise dispose of Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution without adopting it on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the House votes to table the privileged resolution, votes it down, or the resolution otherwise dies without adoption (e.g. Rule IX clock expires again through early recess) on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is adopted or remains pending and undischarged at that date.
60%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 OpenWill Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the House table, reject, or otherwise dispose of Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution without adopting it on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the House votes to table the privileged resolution, votes it down, or the resolution otherwise dies without adoption (e.g. Rule IX clock expires again through early recess) on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is adopted or remains pending and undischarged at that date.
60%probability