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statementWeekly price dynamics are negative at -0.04% w/w, with year-to-date growth of 6.2%; October price growth was slightly better than expectations at 1.1% m/m, but this is a preliminary figure, and annual dynamics are forming around 7% y/y.@trueconstatementFunds of the population in banks changed insignificantly, which is typical for autumn, and the share of term deposits fell to 33.4%.@trueconstatementThe outflow into "cash" remains elevated for now but is gradually normalizing.@trueconstatementThe volume of cash grew by ₽0.2 trln (+1.1% m/m and +22.1% y/y), the share of cash in the economy is 15.4%, and growth here mainly reflects seasonal factors.@trueconpredictionGiven the budget advances at the start of the year, there is every chance of fitting into the Bank of Russia's forecast, though closer to its upper bound of 11-12% for December.@trueconstatementPreliminary October M2 data recorded an increase of ₽0.7 trln, or 0.5% m/m, with annual growth slowing to 12.1% y/y.@trueconpredictionAccording to the updated forecast, inflation will be 7.1–7.6% in 2026 and will return to 4% in 2027.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиpredictionThe Bank of Russia raised the projected path of the key rate for 2027–2028; the average key rate in 2027 is expected in the range of 12.5–13.5% per annum.Банк РоссииstatementFollowing the discussion, the key rate was kept at 14% per annum.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиstatementRestoring capacity takes longer than previously expected and inflation expectations remain high, so the effect of the temporary supply reduction on price growth will fade gradually; under these conditions moderately tight monetary conditions must be maintained longer to return inflation to target.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиstatementThe economy continued to grow moderately; consumer activity growth slowed somewhat while investment activity was gradually recovering, and domestic demand again exceeded supply capacity.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиstatementIn October the situation on the fuel market stabilized, but the increase in housing and utility tariffs had an additional effect on inflation.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиstatementParticipants linked the inflation mainly to the effects of a temporary reduction in production in certain sectors; higher fuel prices raised companies' costs and inflation expectations and affected prices of a wide range of goods and services.Участники обсужденияstatementThe main topic of discussion was the strengthening of persistent inflationary pressure; in Q3 most measures of persistent price growth were in the 5–6% annualized range, after 4–5% in the first half of the year.Резюме обсуждения ключевой ставкиstatementOn tax days there were very large placements of budget money into deposits of about ₽4.9 trillion, which indicates good revenue dynamics, though not necessarily of the federal budget.@trueconstatementIn October both revenues and expenditures should have grown; the growth in expenditures is partly due to the concentration of coupon payments specifically in October, and partly due to advances in the first month of the quarter.@trueconstatementThe budget apparently closed October better than expectations again, judging by liquidity flows: despite insignificant borrowing (₽0.13 trillion), deposits in banks grew by ₽0.66 trillion, and another ₽0.2 trillion went to budget accounts at the Central Bank.@trueconpredictionIn November the dynamics promise to be similar, with strong fluctuations in cash in December amid salary payments and budget expenditures.@trueconstatementSeasonally adjusted, cash growth slowed to about 14–15% (SAAR), slightly above M2 growth rates, but the process has clearly begun to subside.@trueconstatementThe outflow into cash over the month was about ₽0.2 trillion, and the slowdown in the outflow continues, though this partly reflects seasonal dynamics since demand for cash always declines in autumn.@truecon
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