Claims
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statementMortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong surge before the tightening of subsidized mortgage terms, but in October everything went dark.post authorstatementPreliminary Frank RG data on retail lending for October recorded a sharp drop in issuance to ₽1.03 trillion (-22.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y), a reversal after the surge in subsidized mortgages.Frank RGstatementIn the US market there was a sharp crash: Nasdaq -6%, S&P -4%, starting with AI and Big Tech stocks, followed by margin calls, especially since margin positions and leverage were at maximums.post authorstatementGas prices in Europe reached $1200 per thousand cubic meters and then corrected to about $1050 on hopes that the Middle East situation would normalize, but gas withdrawal from storage has already begun.post authorstatementThe Dated Brent–Urals tax price spread (FOB before logistics) stabilized at $23–23.5 per barrel, with ESPO premiums offsetting Urals discounts.post authorstatementThe tax price of Urals fell to $82.5 per barrel by November 3, could have dropped to about $75 after the US elections, and averaged $101.5 per barrel in October.post authorstatementOn hopes of normalization with Iran, oil prices corrected to about $95–100 per barrel of Dated Brent, and by expiry the futures converged with spot.post authorstatementIran stated that a couple more tankers were blown up, and in total several dozen have already been lost.IranstatementJPM stated that by early November the market had shifted to a surplus.JPMallegationOil supplies from the Middle East fell sharply in October after September's drop due to attacks on tankers and pipelines.post authorstatementInflation in October remained low at 0.0% m/m (sa) and +0.7% y/y; fuel price growth (20% y/y) and smartphones (+16.1% y/y) were offset by falling food prices.@trueconallegationRecord Chinese imports from Russia are of course driven by substantially higher oil prices in October.@trueconstatementOver 10 months, record trade turnover between Russia and China was $242.5 billion (+32.1% y/y), with $109.3 billion China's exports to Russia and $133.2 billion China's imports from Russia.@trueconstatementChina's exports to Russia in October adjusted from $13.4 billion to $11.2 billion, while imports rose from $15.7 billion to $16.7 billion.@trueconstatementChina's oil imports rose in October to 9.8 mb/d (+0.7 mb/d versus August) but remain below last year's level by 1.65 mb/d.@trueconstatementOver the last 12 months China's foreign trade balance was +$1.28 trillion.@trueconstatementChina's trade balance in September was +$05 billion, with the surplus somewhat narrowing due to faster import growth amid high oil prices.@trueconallegationRestrictions imposed by Trump so far only lead to growth in China's foreign trade.@trueconpredictionIn the author's view, inflation will run at 6-7% (SAAR) for Q4, against the CBR forecast of 7.5-9.5% (SAAR).@trueconpredictionDisinflation in gasoline is expected (-2% w/w) as autumn consumption falls substantially, which by itself balances the market even with the retirement of refining capacity; the question is the scale of the correction.@truecon
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