Will Russia's State Duma adopt the 2027–2029 federal budget package in second reading at its 19 November 2026 plenary session, or by 20 November 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the State Duma adopts the draft federal budget for 2027 and the 2028–2029 planning period (the budget package, including the accompanying tax and Budget Code amendments) in second reading at a plenary session held on 19 November 2026, or at any plenary session on or before 20 November 2026. Resolution source: a dated report of the second-reading vote by RIA Novosti, Interfax, TASS, Vedomosti or Kommersant, or the Duma's own website. NO if the second reading is not held by 20 November 2026, is postponed to a later date, or the budget is rejected/returned to first reading.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 90% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 90%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the Duma's second reading of the 2027–2029 budget be postponed past 20 November 2026 (or the budget package be sent back to first reading)?
YES if no second-reading vote on the 2027–2029 federal budget package has taken place by 23:59 MSK on 20 November 2026 — i.e. the 19 November plenary is cancelled, the item is pulled from the agenda, the reading is rescheduled to a later date, or the package is returned to first reading. Resolution source: dated RIA/Interfax/TASS/Vedomosti/Kommersant report or the Duma's published agenda for 19–20 November 2026.
10%probability
- closes 20 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the Duma's second reading of the 2027–2029 budget be postponed past 20 November 2026 (or the budget package be sent back to first reading)?
YES if no second-reading vote on the 2027–2029 federal budget package has taken place by 23:59 MSK on 20 November 2026 — i.e. the 19 November plenary is cancelled, the item is pulled from the agenda, the reading is rescheduled to a later date, or the package is returned to first reading. Resolution source: dated RIA/Interfax/TASS/Vedomosti/Kommersant report or the Duma's published agenda for 19–20 November 2026.
10%probability