Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for "discrediting traditional values") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026?
as of 14 Nov 2026, 12:08 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the State Duma adopts bill No. 1101893-8 in the first reading at a plenary session on or before 18 November 2026 (a dated report of the vote, e.g. Interfax/RIA/Parliamentary Gazette/Duma transcript, counts). NO if the first reading is postponed beyond 18 November 2026, the bill is withdrawn or rejected, or no vote is recorded by then.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 85% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 85%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the first reading of bill No. 1101893-8 slip past 18 November 2026 but still be adopted by the Duma on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if no first-reading vote on bill No. 1101893-8 occurs on or before 18 November 2026, but the State Duma does adopt it in the first reading at a later plenary session on or before 31 December 2026 (dated report of the vote).
10%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill the first reading of bill No. 1101893-8 slip past 18 November 2026 but still be adopted by the Duma on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if no first-reading vote on bill No. 1101893-8 occurs on or before 18 November 2026, but the State Duma does adopt it in the first reading at a later plenary session on or before 31 December 2026 (dated report of the vote).
10%probability