Will the Moscow Exchange execute its first organised digital-currency trades on 1 December 2026, as announced?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 18:08 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) executes at least one digital-currency trade (BTC, ETH or USDT) on its new organised crypto market on 1 December 2026, as announced by the exchange on 2 November 2026. NO if the start is postponed beyond 1 December 2026 or no trade is executed that day.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 80% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 80%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 1 Jan 2027 exclusive OpenWill MOEX's organised crypto market start slip past 1 December 2026 but still execute its first trades by 31 December 2026?
YES if no digital-currency trade is executed on MOEX on 1 December 2026, but at least one BTC/ETH/USDT trade is executed on the MOEX platform on or before 31 December 2026.
15%probability
- closes 1 Jan 2027 exclusive OpenWill MOEX's organised crypto market start slip past 1 December 2026 but still execute its first trades by 31 December 2026?
YES if no digital-currency trade is executed on MOEX on 1 December 2026, but at least one BTC/ETH/USDT trade is executed on the MOEX platform on or before 31 December 2026.
15%probability