Will Vladimir Putin attend the G20 leaders' summit in Miami/Doral in person on 14–15 December 2026?
as of 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if Putin is physically present at the G20 leaders' summit at Trump National Doral, Miami, on 14 or 15 December 2026 (reported attendance by the Kremlin, the host, or pool coverage counts). No if Russia is represented by Foreign Minister Lavrov, another official, or Putin appears only by video.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 35% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026, 12:07 UTC
Probability updated.
35%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 16 Dec 2026 OpenWill Putin and Zelenskyy hold a face-to-face meeting in Miami during the 14–15 December 2026 G20 summit?
Yes if Putin and Zelenskyy are both physically present in Miami/Doral and meet in person on 14 or 15 December 2026 (or in a documented sideline meeting during the summit window). No if either is absent, or if they do not meet despite both attending.
7%probability
- closes 16 Dec 2026 OpenWill Putin and Zelenskyy hold a face-to-face meeting in Miami during the 14–15 December 2026 G20 summit?
Yes if Putin and Zelenskyy are both physically present in Miami/Doral and meet in person on 14 or 15 December 2026 (or in a documented sideline meeting during the summit window). No if either is absent, or if they do not meet despite both attending.
7%probability