Will Indonesia's DPR fail to adopt the Hak Menyatakan Pendapat (HMP) against Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka by the end of Masa Persidangan II on 17 December 2026?
as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if, by 23:59 WIB on 17 December 2026 (the last day of DPR Masa Persidangan II Tahun Sidang 2026-2027), no DPR plenary session has adopted the HMP proposal under Pasal 210(3)/212 UU MD3 — i.e. no plenary vote reached the required quorum of 2/3 of 580 members (387 present) with 2/3 of those present voting in favour. Announcement of the proposal in the 12 November plenary, referral to Bamus, or formation of a pansus without a plenary adoption vote does not count as adoption.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 90% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 11 Nov 2026, 12:10 UTC
Probability updated.
90%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 17 Dec 2026 OpenWill Gibran Rakabuming Raka formally resign as Vice-President of Indonesia before the DPR adopts the HMP, on or before 17 December 2026?
Yes if Gibran submits a formal written resignation as Vice-President (not merely a stated intention reported by the State Secretariat) and it takes effect before any DPR plenary adoption of the HMP, on or before 17 December 2026.
15%probability
- closes 17 Dec 2026 OpenWill Gibran Rakabuming Raka formally resign as Vice-President of Indonesia before the DPR adopts the HMP, on or before 17 December 2026?
Yes if Gibran submits a formal written resignation as Vice-President (not merely a stated intention reported by the State Secretariat) and it takes effect before any DPR plenary adoption of the HMP, on or before 17 December 2026.
15%probability