Open
/Decision/closes 31 Dec 2027 11 Nov 2026, 06:11 UTC

Will Kenya's Court of Appeal instead strike down section 44 of the Banking Act (removing the Cabinet Secretary's approval power) before any amending statute is enacted, on or before 31 December 2027?

20%probability

as of 11 Nov 2026, 06:11 UTC ·no change

Resolves YES if

YES if the Court of Appeal of Kenya delivers a judgment on or before 31 December 2027 in Kenya Bankers Association v Attorney General & Another (appeal against the High Court judgment of 11 December 2025) that declares section 44 of the Banking Act unconstitutional or otherwise removes the requirement for Cabinet Secretary approval of interest-rate and charge increases, and no amending statute has been assented to by that date.

Branch of Will Kenya enact a statutory amendment moving approval of bank interest-rate and charge changes from the Treasury Cabinet Secretary to the Central Bank of Kenya on or before 31 December 2027?(Open)

Probability history

1 recorded point

now 20% · no change

What changed

Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.

  • 11 Nov 2026, 06:11 UTC

    Probability updated.

    20%

Branches

Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.

mutually exclusive

Target

Decision

01a1c8fd-4e34-7fce-b5ac-81f93a5b8c9e

Open decision