Will the special European Council of 26–27 November 2026 agree new EU financing to cover Ukraine's 2027 budget shortfall?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 18:11 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Yes if the European Council conclusions, or an official statement issued at or immediately after the 26–27 November 2026 special summit in Brussels, record a political agreement among member states on new EU financing for Ukraine's 2027 needs (e.g. a new joint loan, guarantees or budget headroom) on top of the existing €90bn Ukraine Support Loan. No if the summit ends without such an agreement, or explicitly defers the decision to a later meeting.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 30% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 18:11 UTC
Probability updated.
30%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 28 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 26–27 November 2026 special European Council end without any new EU financing decision for Ukraine's 2027 gap, deferring it to a later meeting?
Yes if the 26–27 November 2026 special European Council concludes with no political agreement on new EU financing for Ukraine's 2027 needs and the matter is explicitly left to a later European Council or to the Commission to bring forward a proposal at a future date.
65%probability
- closes 28 Nov 2026 exclusive OpenWill the 26–27 November 2026 special European Council end without any new EU financing decision for Ukraine's 2027 gap, deferring it to a later meeting?
Yes if the 26–27 November 2026 special European Council concludes with no political agreement on new EU financing for Ukraine's 2027 needs and the matter is explicitly left to a later European Council or to the Commission to bring forward a proposal at a future date.
65%probability
Target
Decision
—