Will incumbent President Sadyr Japarov submit his nomination documents to Kyrgyzstan's CEC before the candidate-nomination window closes (12–13 November 2026)?
resolved 10 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC
Resolves YES if
Yes if a dated report (CEC statement or credible news outlet) shows Japarov filed a self-nomination application with the Central Commission for Elections and Referenda for the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before the close of the nomination window. The graph records the deadline as 12 November 2026 at 24:00 (CIS91, published_on 2026-11-05); Kabar (2026-11-03) says applications close at midnight on 12 November, while gazeta.kg and Azattyq (2026-11-06/07) say nomination ends 13 November. To cover both readings the deadline is set to 2026-11-14T00:00Z. No if no such filing is reported by then.
Resolved Yes · 10 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC
Source: official
“Сегодня, 10 ноября, Президент Кыргызской Республики Садыр Нургожоевич Жапаров обратился в Центральную комиссию по выборам и проведению референдумов Кыргызской Республики с заявлением о выдвижении своей кандидатуры на должность Президента Кыргызской Республики в порядке самовыдвижения.” Центральная комиссия по выборам и проведению референдумов КР (shailoo.gov.kg)
Probability history
5 recorded points
now 92% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 06:06 UTC
Probability updated.
92%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 14 Nov 2026 exclusive InvalidatedWill Japarov fail to file nomination documents before the Kyrgyz CEC nomination window closes, leaving the incumbent off the 27 January 2027 ballot at the nomination stage?
Yes if no dated report shows Japarov filing a self-nomination application with Kyrgyzstan's CEC by 2026-11-14T00:00Z, i.e. the nomination window closes with the incumbent not having submitted documents (as was still the case per Azattyq, published 2026-11-09).
8%probability
- closes 14 Nov 2026 exclusive InvalidatedWill Japarov fail to file nomination documents before the Kyrgyz CEC nomination window closes, leaving the incumbent off the 27 January 2027 ballot at the nomination stage?
Yes if no dated report shows Japarov filing a self-nomination application with Kyrgyzstan's CEC by 2026-11-14T00:00Z, i.e. the nomination window closes with the incumbent not having submitted documents (as was still the case per Azattyq, published 2026-11-09).
8%probability