Will Georgia's Constitutional Court rule by 30 June 2027 that at least one of the five targeted opposition parties is unconstitutional and must be banned?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 00:02 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the Constitutional Court of Georgia (Batumi plenum) publishes a ruling on Georgian Dream's lawsuit (constcourt.ge case legal=20319) that declares at least one of the five targeted parties — Unity-National Movement, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia-Lelo, the Federalists, For Georgia — unconstitutional and bans it, on or before 30 June 2027. NO if by that date the court has rejected the lawsuit in full, dismissed/declined to ban all five, or has not ruled at all.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 70% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 10 Nov 2026, 00:02 UTC
Probability updated.
70%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 30 Jun 2027 exclusive OpenWill Georgia's Constitutional Court reject Georgian Dream's party-ban lawsuit in full by 30 June 2027, banning none of the five parties?
YES if the Constitutional Court's ruling on case legal=20319 dismisses the lawsuit entirely, leaving all five targeted parties (UNM, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia-Lelo, Federalists, For Georgia) legally able to operate, on or before 30 June 2027. NO otherwise, including if no ruling issues by that date.
30%probability
- closes 30 Jun 2027 exclusive OpenWill Georgia's Constitutional Court reject Georgian Dream's party-ban lawsuit in full by 30 June 2027, banning none of the five parties?
YES if the Constitutional Court's ruling on case legal=20319 dismisses the lawsuit entirely, leaving all five targeted parties (UNM, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia-Lelo, Federalists, For Georgia) legally able to operate, on or before 30 June 2027. NO otherwise, including if no ruling issues by that date.
30%probability