Will ITLOS order the UK to halt Sea Lion hydrocarbon exploitation in Case No. 37 on or before 31 December 2026?
15%probability
as of 09 Nov 2026, 19:17 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the Order in Case No. 37 published on or before 2026-12-31 requires the United Kingdom to prevent the commencement or continuation of hydrocarbon exploitation in the North Malvinas Basin by the Sea Lion project (Argentina's requested measure (a)), whether or not other measures are also prescribed. NO if the Order omits that measure, or no Order is published by the deadline.
Branch of Will ITLOS prescribe at least one provisional measure against the UK in the Sea Lion case (Case No. 37) on or before 31 December 2026?(Open)
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 15% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
The change log is not available
Too many requests from this connection. Try again in a minute.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
The branch tree is not available
Too many requests from this connection. Try again in a minute.
Target
Back to forecasts 0 branches