Will ITLOS prescribe at least one provisional measure against the UK in the Sea Lion case (Case No. 37) on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea publishes an Order in Case No. 37 (Dispute concerning hydrocarbon exploitation in the South-West Atlantic Ocean, Argentina v. United Kingdom, Provisional Measures) on or before 2026-12-31 that prescribes at least one provisional measure binding the United Kingdom — including a minimal non-aggravation, information-sharing or environmental measure, not only an order halting Sea Lion. NO if the Tribunal rejects the request in its entirety, or if no Order has been published by 2026-12-31.
Probability history
2 recorded points
now 45% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 19:16 UTC
Probability updated.
45%
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill ITLOS reject Argentina's provisional-measures request in Case No. 37 in its entirety on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the Order published in Case No. 37 on or before 2026-12-31 finds that the Annex VII tribunal would not prima facie have jurisdiction (or otherwise declines) and prescribes no provisional measure at all. NO if any measure is prescribed, or if no Order is published by the deadline.
55%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill ITLOS order the UK to halt Sea Lion hydrocarbon exploitation in Case No. 37 on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the Order in Case No. 37 published on or before 2026-12-31 requires the United Kingdom to prevent the commencement or continuation of hydrocarbon exploitation in the North Malvinas Basin by the Sea Lion project (Argentina's requested measure (a)), whether or not other measures are also prescribed. NO if the Order omits that measure, or no Order is published by the deadline.
15%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill ITLOS reject Argentina's provisional-measures request in Case No. 37 in its entirety on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the Order published in Case No. 37 on or before 2026-12-31 finds that the Annex VII tribunal would not prima facie have jurisdiction (or otherwise declines) and prescribes no provisional measure at all. NO if any measure is prescribed, or if no Order is published by the deadline.
55%probability - closes 31 Dec 2026 exclusive OpenWill ITLOS order the UK to halt Sea Lion hydrocarbon exploitation in Case No. 37 on or before 31 December 2026?
YES if the Order in Case No. 37 published on or before 2026-12-31 requires the United Kingdom to prevent the commencement or continuation of hydrocarbon exploitation in the North Malvinas Basin by the Sea Lion project (Argentina's requested measure (a)), whether or not other measures are also prescribed. NO if the Order omits that measure, or no Order is published by the deadline.
15%probability