Will Russia's new localization requirements for additive production be in force on 1 January 2028, as the graph's start_date records?
as of 09 Nov 2026, 16:34 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if a dated official Russian source (government decree, EAEU technical-regulation amendment, or federal law) shows the new localization requirements for additive production applying in Russia on 2028-01-01 and not having applied before that date. NO if the requirements applied earlier than 2028-01-01, or were postponed to a later date (including a later date in 2028) or withdrawn before taking effect. Silence is not a NO: if no dated official source exists by the deadline, the forecast stays open.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 50% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 09 Nov 2026, 16:34 UTC
Probability updated.
50% evidence 01a1c083
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 31 Dec 2027 exclusive OpenWill the new Russian localization requirements for additive production take effect earlier than 1 January 2028 — i.e. on or before 31 December 2027?
YES if a dated official Russian source (decree, EAEU technical-regulation amendment, or federal law) shows the localization requirements for additive production applying in Russia on or before 2027-12-31, i.e. the 2028-01-01 start_date in the graph was too late. NO if no such source exists by 2027-12-31 — which does not by itself prove the parent, only that this earlier branch did not happen.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2028 exclusive OpenWill the 2028 start of Russia's additive-production localization requirements be postponed past 1 January 2028 or withdrawn before it takes effect?
YES if a dated official Russian source shows the entry into force moved to a date after 2028-01-01 (including later in 2028), or the requirement withdrawn/indefinitely suspended, at any point up to 2028-12-31. This refutes the parent. NO if by 2028-12-31 no dated source shows a postponement or withdrawal.
20%probability
- closes 31 Dec 2027 exclusive OpenWill the new Russian localization requirements for additive production take effect earlier than 1 January 2028 — i.e. on or before 31 December 2027?
YES if a dated official Russian source (decree, EAEU technical-regulation amendment, or federal law) shows the localization requirements for additive production applying in Russia on or before 2027-12-31, i.e. the 2028-01-01 start_date in the graph was too late. NO if no such source exists by 2027-12-31 — which does not by itself prove the parent, only that this earlier branch did not happen.
10%probability - closes 31 Dec 2028 exclusive OpenWill the 2028 start of Russia's additive-production localization requirements be postponed past 1 January 2028 or withdrawn before it takes effect?
YES if a dated official Russian source shows the entry into force moved to a date after 2028-01-01 (including later in 2028), or the requirement withdrawn/indefinitely suspended, at any point up to 2028-12-31. This refutes the parent. NO if by 2028-12-31 no dated source shows a postponement or withdrawal.
20%probability