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statementOn hopes of normalization with Iran, oil prices corrected to about $95–100 per barrel of Dated Brent, and by expiry the futures converged with spot.post authorstatementIran stated that a couple more tankers were blown up, and in total several dozen have already been lost.IranstatementJPM stated that by early November the market had shifted to a surplus.JPMallegationOil supplies from the Middle East fell sharply in October after September's drop due to attacks on tankers and pipelines.post authorstatementInflation in October remained low at 0.0% m/m (sa) and +0.7% y/y; fuel price growth (20% y/y) and smartphones (+16.1% y/y) were offset by falling food prices.@trueconallegationRecord Chinese imports from Russia are of course driven by substantially higher oil prices in October.@trueconstatementOver 10 months, record trade turnover between Russia and China was $242.5 billion (+32.1% y/y), with $109.3 billion China's exports to Russia and $133.2 billion China's imports from Russia.@trueconstatementChina's exports to Russia in October adjusted from $13.4 billion to $11.2 billion, while imports rose from $15.7 billion to $16.7 billion.@trueconstatementChina's oil imports rose in October to 9.8 mb/d (+0.7 mb/d versus August) but remain below last year's level by 1.65 mb/d.@trueconstatementOver the last 12 months China's foreign trade balance was +$1.28 trillion.@trueconstatementChina's trade balance in September was +$05 billion, with the surplus somewhat narrowing due to faster import growth amid high oil prices.@trueconallegationRestrictions imposed by Trump so far only lead to growth in China's foreign trade.@trueconpredictionIn the author's view, inflation will run at 6-7% (SAAR) for Q4, against the CBR forecast of 7.5-9.5% (SAAR).@trueconpredictionDisinflation in gasoline is expected (-2% w/w) as autumn consumption falls substantially, which by itself balances the market even with the retirement of refining capacity; the question is the scale of the correction.@trueconstatementWeekly price dynamics are negative at -0.04% w/w, with year-to-date growth of 6.2%; October price growth was slightly better than expectations at 1.1% m/m, but this is a preliminary figure, and annual dynamics are forming around 7% y/y.@trueconstatementFunds of the population in banks changed insignificantly, which is typical for autumn, and the share of term deposits fell to 33.4%.@trueconstatementThe outflow into "cash" remains elevated for now but is gradually normalizing.@trueconstatementThe volume of cash grew by ₽0.2 trln (+1.1% m/m and +22.1% y/y), the share of cash in the economy is 15.4%, and growth here mainly reflects seasonal factors.@trueconpredictionGiven the budget advances at the start of the year, there is every chance of fitting into the Bank of Russia's forecast, though closer to its upper bound of 11-12% for December.@trueconstatementPreliminary October M2 data recorded an increase of ₽0.7 trln, or 0.5% m/m, with annual growth slowing to 12.1% y/y.@truecon
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