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statementWeekly price dynamics are negative at -0.04% w/w, with year-to-date growth of 6.2%; October price growth was slightly better than expectations at 1.1% m/m, but this is a preliminary figure, and annual dynamics are forming around 7% y/y.trueconstatementFunds of the population in banks changed insignificantly, which is typical for autumn, and the share of term deposits fell to 33.4%.trueconstatementThe outflow into "cash" remains elevated for now but is gradually normalizing.trueconstatementThe volume of cash grew by ₽0.2 trln (+1.1% m/m and +22.1% y/y), the share of cash in the economy is 15.4%, and growth here mainly reflects seasonal factors.trueconpredictionGiven the budget advances at the start of the year, there is every chance of fitting into the Bank of Russia's forecast, though closer to its upper bound of 11-12% for December.trueconstatementPreliminary October M2 data recorded an increase of ₽0.7 trln, or 0.5% m/m, with annual growth slowing to 12.1% y/y.trueconstatementOn tax days there were very large placements of budget money into deposits of about ₽4.9 trillion, which indicates good revenue dynamics, though not necessarily of the federal budget.trueconstatementIn October both revenues and expenditures should have grown; the growth in expenditures is partly due to the concentration of coupon payments specifically in October, and partly due to advances in the first month of the quarter.trueconstatementThe budget apparently closed October better than expectations again, judging by liquidity flows: despite insignificant borrowing (₽0.13 trillion), deposits in banks grew by ₽0.66 trillion, and another ₽0.2 trillion went to budget accounts at the Central Bank.trueconpredictionIn November the dynamics promise to be similar, with strong fluctuations in cash in December amid salary payments and budget expenditures.trueconstatementSeasonally adjusted, cash growth slowed to about 14–15% (SAAR), slightly above M2 growth rates, but the process has clearly begun to subside.trueconstatementThe outflow into cash over the month was about ₽0.2 trillion, and the slowdown in the outflow continues, though this partly reflects seasonal dynamics since demand for cash always declines in autumn.trueconstatementThe increase in the liquidity deficit was partly due to growth in cash (₽0.2 trillion), partly due to budget operations (₽0.2 trillion) and other factors, including growth in required reserves.trueconstatementThe structural liquidity deficit averaged ₽3.6 trillion in October, an increase of ₽0.6 trillion over the month.trueconpredictionGiven that legislative power is now with the Democrats and executive power with the Republicans, the dominant scenario will be "budget paralysis" — no systemic decisions will be possible, which will lead to maintaining a high budget deficit and growth of the national debt.trueconstatementOver the last year the national debt grew by $2.5 trillion, and over two years the increase was $4.6 trillion; there are so far no signals that the dynamics will change.trueconstatementTraditionally in the first month of a quarter the US Treasury borrowed mainly through issuing short-term bills (+$264 billion), whose issuance volume reached $7.38 trillion, or 23% of all market debt.trueconstatementThe national debt rose by $353 billion in October to $40.52 trillion (~123% of GDP), with growth mainly driven by market borrowings of +$315 billion.trueconpredictionWhen the average rate on the national debt exceeds 4% per annum, which is confidently approaching, annual interest expenses will approach 5% of GDP.trueconpredictionOn the market portion of the debt the rate rose to 3.57%; long- and medium-term debt is still fairly cheap at 3.4-3.5% per annum versus market rates of 4.8-5.3%, and inertial growth here will continue for a long time since paper with rates averaging up to 2.5% per annum is being redeemed.truecon
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